Polygon, the Dancing Bear

Occasional notes on politics, history, technology, architecture,
and the life of a county clerk

2002:
May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2003:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2004:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2005:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2006:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2007:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2008:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July

Current entries

Sunday, August 8, 2004, 11:14 pm

Challenge-response spamblockers. We're all trying to cope with the ever-rising flood of spam and viruses, but some are doing better than others.

Quite frequently, I receive email from a user of my web site, often with a question or comment. I write a reply, send it, and receive an autoreply from a spamblocking program.

The autoreply contains instructions: in order to my mail to be delivered, I must click on a certain several-lines-long URL. So I painstakingly paste the URL together in my browser's address bar — and get an error message. Unable to process your request or similar.

It never fails.

I think from now on, I won't bother to deal with these. You're the one who started the conversation. If my reply to your letter gets vaporized by your spam blocker, then I guess we're not communicating.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum — Comments

Friday, August 6, 2004, 5:32 pm

Good signs from the primary. Tuesday, August 3rd was primary election day in Washtenaw County. As a candidate, I was unopposed in the primary, of course, as was my opponent, but the numbers bode well for November:


   Lawrence Kestenbaum (D) 16,886

   Peggy M. Haines (R)     11,362

Put those together, and I got nearly 60% of the total vote for County Clerk — despite the fact that Republican turnout, traditionally high in primaries, was bolstered by the big 7th District congressional primary, while Democratic Ann Arbor was extremely quiet.

I also did very well relative to the other countywide candidates — a key measure of holding the Democratic base.

In partisan primaries, voters have a demonstrated tendency to cast votes for unopposed candidates if they plan to support them, and to "skip" voting for unopposed candidates when they plan to vote for the other party's nominee in the general election.

Brian Mackie, our county prosecutor, traditionally gets the most votes; his vote in the primary is the yardstick for any Democratic countywide challenger. Here's how past candidates have measured up:

In August, 1996 (PDF), 16.4% of the Democrats who voted for Brian Mackie in the primary "skipped" voting for the Democrat running for County Clerk. That same weakness showed up in November, when she ran well behind the Democratic baseline, and lost.
In August, 2000 (PDF), 8.4% of the Democrats who voted for Brian Mackie in the primary "skipped" Dan Minzey, who was running for Sheriff. Minzey ran only slightly behind the Democratic baseline in November, and won by 8,000 votes over a well-known and popular incumbent.
In August, 2004, only 6.4% of the Democrats who voted for Brian Mackie in the primary "skipped" voting for me. That low fall-off suggests that I am very well positioned to hold the Democratic base in November, and win the election, just as Dan Minzey did four years ago.

Not only is Washtenaw County voting more and more Democratic from year to year, but Democratic voters are now more partisan, and less inclined to make exceptions for a few Republican candidates.

Moreover, I have been able to articulate to a wide audience my vision for the Clerk-Register's office: more efficient workflow, an ethic of unfailing courtesy and respect for every customer, election administration geared to greater inclusiveness and participation, and an end to seven decades of one-party control.

Many thanks to everyone for the great support!

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum.

Comments:

Lynne Fremont, 8/8/2004: That is awesome Larry. Good for you!
parade fan, 9/13/2004:your vision and ambition for the office notwithstanding, will you look good in old glory-inspired apparel as you (choose one: a. waddle, b. strut, c. march) in local parades?
John J Walton, 10/23/2004:I know Brian Mackie a little ..but it seems he has changed..something like being in office so long he thinks he is king. Brian, you should quit. you are there to inforce the law, not comment on it or fight it.. its simple..but when you go against our 2nd amedment it is wrong. where is the crime spree from the ccw holders Brian..crime is down all right..but not because of you king Brian... its time for a change.. you don`t have the right to speak for others.. just uphold the law I am ashamed of you

2002:
May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2003:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December