Polygon, the Dancing Bear

Occasional notes on politics, history, technology, architecture,
and the life of a county clerk

Thursday, May 1, 2008, 1:47 pm

More Bad Economic News from the Deeds Office

A "sheriff's deed" is recorded when a mortgage has been foreclosed and the property sold at auction. Hence, the number of sheriff's deeds recorded in the Register of Deeds office is a precise indicator of distress among homeowners in that county.

By that standard, things are looking grim here in Washtenaw County, with the number of sheriff's deeds reaching previously unheard-of levels. There were 1,151 in calendar year 2007, compared to 703 in 2006 and 433 in 2005. And so far this year we already have 500.

Here's the data by month and year since 2002:

Month	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Jan	15	21	25	33	32	88	106
Feb	9	17	22	28	54	99	126
Mar	16	10	31	38	59	103	123
Apr	13	37	23	27	46	72	145
May	20	11	29	40	53	75
Jun	25	26	13	40	69	76
Jul	19	21	29	41	30	113
Aug	23	29	22	27	68	78
Sep	20	17	21	42	63	85
Oct	19	25	22	42	59	108
Nov	24	20	21	20	93	107
Dec	28	31	30	55	77	147
Totals	231	265	288	433	703	1,151	500

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Monday, March 31, 2008, 11:25 pm

Speaking at the Ypsilanti school board meeting

This evening, the Ypsilanti school board took up the issue of selling the long-closed Ardis school on Ellsworth Road to the Hidaya Community Center/Michigan Islamic Academy, which has offered $3.9 million for it. Earlier, sale of the property to the Salvation Army fell through.

The proposed sale had aroused some opposition, some of it frankly anti-Muslim, and flyers were distributed in the neighborhood. About 300 people were at the meeting, and some 20 spoke during public comment (each with a gently but firmly enforced 3 minute limit). Here's what I said:

Good evening. I'm Larry Kestenbaum, Washtenaw County Clerk and Register of Deeds. My office is at 200 North Main Street in downtown Ann Arbor.

I'm not a resident of the Ypsilanti school district, but you're all part of my constituency, and my office serves the entire county when it comes to vital records, elections, court records, and deeds. I'm very interested in intergroup relations in Washtenaw County.

Myself, I'm Jewish, and an active member of Temple Beth Emeth, Jewish congregation, and my wife is on the board of trustees.

The closing of a school is always painful. Generations of students share memories of their formative years in those rooms. The elementary school I attended was closed some years ago, amid bitter controversy. But that school building still exists and contributes to the community, under different ownership, as a community center.

Accordingly, I am here to support the recommendation to sell Ardis School to the Hidaya Center, which I am sure will put the building to good use and benefit the whole community.

Let me share just a couple of brief anecdotes to make my point.

First, some years ago, when I was the youngest member of the East Lansing Planning Commission, we received a site plan for the MSU Islamic Center, across the street from the MSU campus, but also adjoining a single-family residential area.

The plan was approved, and East Lansing has never had cause to regret that decision. Nearby homeowners, folks I grew up with, people I represented as county commissioner, say the Islamic Center is a very good neighbor.

Second, when Ann Arbor had to close a school, they made a decision similar to the one I hope you will make tonight. They sold the Clinton Elementary School, and it became the Jewish Community Center of Washtenaw County.

As a member of the JCC organization, I view this facility with some pride. It houses a school, day care center, and meeting rooms for community events. Just yesterday afternoon, I took my daughter Sarah, who happens to be here tonight, to her Girl Scout troop meeting there.

The Washtenaw County Jewish community is still grateful for the consideration we received to purchase and reuse Clinton School. I urge you to give the Islamic community the same consideration in its bid to purchase and reuse Ardis School.

Census estimates show that Washtenaw County is growing, even as the state's population is declining. People are coming here because of our economy, still the best in the state, and because of the things this area has to offer.

A growing and thriving community naturally becomes more diverse, including religiously diverse. Yes, we'll have more Catholics and Baptists and Lutherans. But we'll also have more Jews, and Mormons, and Buddhists, and Hindus, and Muslims. And all of these groups need to build and nurture their community institutions.

That religious development is inseparable from economic development, which means: more talent, more business, more jobs, and a better future for everyone in Washtenaw County.

Thank you.

I'm happy to report that the school board approved the sale.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Monday, February 25, 2008, 4:42 pm

Some thoughts about campaign spending.

(Also posted to Michigan Liberal.)

In Jess Unruh's famous formulation, money is the mother's milk of politics. Nobody in a political campaign can be unmindful of this. Still, wealthy self-funded candidates such as Dick DeVos and Mitt Romney have demonstrated that it's not possible to simply buy electoral victory.

Perhaps this is an awkward subject to raise in an election year where Democrats, for once, are raising more money than Republicans. But if we and our candidates are to make the best use of this advantage, we need to understand that a well-funded campaign has its own set of risks and pitfalls.

My own cynical rule of thumb is that, the more money a campaign has, the higher the proportion that is wasted. In other words, when money is not a constraint, a big campaign stays in better hotels, eats better food, has a nicer headquarters in a more expensive neighborhood, etc., etc., things which do almost nothing to actually win the election. That's why, contrary to conventional wisdom, shoestring campaigns often beat well-funded campaigns.

Recent news coverage of one of the presidential campaigns highlights lavish spending on catering and luxury hotels, and brings this issue to the forefront.

Now, carping over specific items in one campaign might be a little unfair. Many of us have direct experience of the difficulties of quickly creating a large and temporary organization, when the tactical objectives are constantly changing, and all the participants are amateurs.

But more than that, a large organization is inherently less efficient than a small one. The bigger the entity, the higher the overhead costs, the transaction costs, the communication costs. A great metaphor for this is construction. You can build a hundred identical houses cheaper per house than you can build one house. But a skyscraper costs enormously more per usable square foot than a one-story office building.

In tangible political terms, what's necessary and what's wasteful depends critically on the context. A typical city council campaign doesn't need office space, but a gubernatorial campaign can't do without.

When planning your campaign this year, or any year, here are a few thoughts I would suggest you bear in mind.

1. The big picture. A political campaign is brought into being to win an election. Don't lose sight of the main goal when making decisions on campaign activity and spending.

2. Ethic of frugality. Don't spend campaign money on a new coffeepot, when a volunteer could loan you one for free. Spend money on voter contact instead of creature comforts. Be a good steward for the money entrusted to you by your contributors.

3. Maintain some objectivity. When you're the candidate, it's easy to see each and every manifestation of the opponent as a personal attack that has to be "answered". All too often, when the candidate sees the other side has a radio ad, or a billboard, the budget goes out the window. Sure, sometimes the campaign plan has to adapt to circumstances, but don't waste money trying to keep up with your opponent's waste of money.

4. You can't keep it secret. As soon as you file each campaign finance report, people are looking at it. You may think that the thousand dollars spent at Victoria's Secret is buried at the bottom of page 137, but it may be in the blogs the next day -- or in your opponent's next attack piece.

5. Volunteers and candidate effort are more important than money. No amount of money can buy enthusiastic support. Paid staff are easier to control and direct than volunteers, but if you can't recruit and motivate volunteers, you're not going to win.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Sunday, February 17, 2008, 8:12 pm

Presidents Day Fundraiser

My term as County Clerk is up at the end of the year. I love the job and I've accomplished a lot, but there's lots more to do.

Hence, I'm seeking re-election in the August primary and November general election. I have no definite word on who my opposition will be, but there have been plenty of rumors, and I need to be ready.

My campaign committee is holding a Presidents Day Fundraiser on Monday, February 18, 5pm, at Leopold Brothers Brewpub, 523 S. Main Street, in downtown Ann Arbor.

Many of us are mourning the impending loss of this place; here's a chance to visit Leopold's before it closes.

Alternatively, if you can't make it on Monday, but wish to contribute to the campaign, make checks to Kestenbaum for Clerk-Register and send them to P.O. Box 2563, Ann Arbor MI 48106. No cash or corporate checks.

What happens at a political fundraiser? Essentially, people come in, drop off a check in a bowl near the door, mill around, eat, drink, and talk about politics or whatever. At some point, somebody stands up and introduces all the politicos who are present, and I make a very brief speech. Food is free, alcohol costs. Pretty much like a party, other than that.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Monday, January 14, 2008, 5:30 pm

Presidential Primary: Two Dramatic Updates!

First, I was sued this morning. Nothing personal, though. Local Libertarian Party activist and attorney David Raaflaub sued the Secretary of State, the county Election Commission, and the County Clerk, asking for the presidential primary law to be declared unconstitutional, and for an injunction against holding the primary.

Mr. Raaflaub argued that being required to disclose which party primary he is voting in is a violation the Michigan Constitution's guarantee of ballot secrecy.

(I know those of you in states with party registration will find this hilarious.)

This afternoon, Judge Timothy Connors dismissed the suit.

Second, we have heard from the state Bureau of Elections that, due to an error in ballot programming, Uncommitted and Write-in votes will be counted together in many counties. In order to untangle the mess, they will have to do hand counts.

Here's a pretty good, but probably not perfect, list of the affected counties:

Alger, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Baraga, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Gogebic, Grand Traverse, Houghton, Iron, Jackson, Keweenaw, Leelanau, Lenawee, Luce, Mackinac, Manistee, Marquette, Montmorency, Ontonagon, Oscoda, Otsego, Presque Isle, Roscommon, Schoolcraft, Wexford.

Bottom line, if this is a close election, it will be a very long night.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Wednesday, January 9, 2008, 4:44 pm

Today's message to my staff: polls and New Hamshire.

After yesterday's startling result in New Hampshire, inconsistent with all the polls, the news media are asking what went wrong.

Similar questions were raised in the last Detroit mayor's race, when every poll showed that the challenger was way ahead - but the incumbent won by 14,000 votes.

The problem is that accurate opinion polling is harder and harder to do.

The mathematical theory behind polling is that you can talk to a random sample of the entire population, and come up with a pretty good estimate of what the entire population is thinking.

However, if the people in your sample are not a random sample of the relevant population, the whole concept fails.

In past times, almost everybody had a Bell System home telephone, and almost everybody answered the phone when it rang. Polling was comparatively easy then.

Nowadays, with answering machines and Caller ID, we all have more control over who we spend time talking to. Years of unwelcome interruptions from telemarketers have taught us to screen our calls.

More and more people are choosing to delist themselves from the telephone directory, or not to bother with a "land line" at all. For most purposes, these people are lost to polling.

With two-career families, longer commute times, growing use of restaurants for meals, taking kids to more and more extracurricular activities, etc., it's harder for pollsters to find people at home at all.

And there's another problem. A poll-taker who reaches a voter by phone has to cajole participation in a sometimes lengthy interview. Willingness to do this is on the decline. After all, it's an unsolicited call from a stranger asking personal questions - no surprise that people often say "no".

When a population is very heavily polled (like primary voters in New Hampshire?) the weariness with all the calls really sets in. And the more people who decline to participate, the less accurate the results will be.

On the other hand, if political activists and people with strong opinions are more inclined to say "yes" - that means those folks will be overrepresented, and the overall poll result will be skewed.

The growing disconnect between poll results and reality comes back to haunt us as election officials, since the media and the political campaigns rely heavily on polls for news. It's taken for granted that polls are accurate. When the election turns out differently than polls, we may even be accused of some kind of chicanery.

During this frenetic election year, with media outlets constantly trumpeting their latest surveys, don't forget the old campaign cliché: "The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day."

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Wednesday, January 2, 2008, 10:50 pm

Bad Economic News from the Deeds Office

Here's the data by month and year since 2002:

Month	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Jan	15	21	25	33	32	88
Feb	9	17	22	28	54	99
Mar	16	10	31	38	59	103
Apr	13	37	23	27	46	72
May	20	11	29	40	53	75
Jun	25	26	13	40	69	76
Jul	19	21	29	41	30	113
Aug	23	29	22	27	68	78
Sep	20	17	21	42	63	85
Oct	19	25	22	42	59	108
Nov	24	20	21	20	93	107
Dec	28	31	30	55	77	147
Totals	231	265	288	433	703	1,151

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

Sunday, December 16, 2007, 11:35 pm

Presidential Primary: Q&A

(I sent this out to my staff last week; it was picked up and posted to the county's public web site, and it will also appear in the next Washtenaw Legal News.)

Everywhere I go, people ask me about the presidential primary. When will it be held? What will the choices be? Will my vote be secret? Many of you are probably hearing those questions, too. So here are some answers:

The Michigan presidential primary will be held on Tuesday, January 15. In Washtenaw County, no other issues or races are on the ballot. The State will reimburse localities for election costs.

Voters will have to check a box to choose the Democratic or Republican ballot. If you vote by absentee ballot, you'll need to select a party ballot on an attached form. If you vote at the precinct, you'll get a form with your application to vote.

If you don't select one party's ballot, you can't vote in the presidential primary.

Under the law, the ballot selection information (the list of who chose a Democratic or a Republican ballot) will be transmitted to the state party chairs for them to use, most likely in direct mail and phone calling. It is to be kept confidential from anyone else.

After the primary, I expect that a federal judge will strike down that restriction. Depending on the ruling, that could mean the lists of Democratic and Republican primary voters become public information. Or, possibly, the judge could order that the lists be destroyed without any disclosure.

Therefore, chances are, many people will know which ballot you selected. However, the CONTENT of your ballot, who specifically you vote for, is completely secret. Whether you choose a Democratic or Republican ballot, you can vote for any one candidate, OR "uncommitted", OR write in a name which has been properly filed with the State.

The Republican candidates on the ballot are: Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson.

The Democratic candidates on the ballot are: Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, and Dennis Kucinich. Four other Democratic candidates, under pressure from Iowa and New Hampshire, withdrew their names from the Michigan ballot. These candidates are Joe Biden, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson.

Write-in votes WILL NOT COUNT in the primary unless the write-in candidate files an affidavit of identity with the State by January 4. It's very unlikely that any major candidate not on the ballot will file such an affidavit, since such a filing could be used against them in the New Hampshire primary.

If there are enough "uncommitted" votes to earn delegates, those delegates will be elected at congressional district conventions. Very likely, supporters of various candidates will converge to try to win those "uncommitted" delegate seats.

That being said, both national parties are penalizing Michigan for the unauthorized early primary. Republicans have reduced Michigan's delegate count by half. And planning for the Democratic National Convention in Denver next summer is going forward on the assumption that Michigan won't have a delegation there at all. No hotel space, nor seating section on the convention floor, have been allocated to Michigan. Possibly the delegates will end up being seated, after the presidential nomination has already been settled.

We election officials aren't happy with this whole state of affairs, but it's our job to conduct the election according to law.

....Posted by Lawrence Kestenbaum —

2002:
May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December

2003:
January / February / March
April / May / June / July
August / September / October
November / December